Asie Tsintsadze, Sofio Tsetskhladze
FORECASTING THE EFFECTIVENESS
OF NON-STATE PENSION FUND INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: THE CASE OF GEORGIA
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Georgia’s non-state pension fund using monthly data for 2022–2023 and develops short-to-medium-term forecasts to 2030. We assemble indicators on pension contributions, investment returns, and the exchange rate, and define a fund-effectiveness measure to capture the system’s ability to meet obligations. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used to estimate the relationship between effectiveness and its determinants; we verify time-series properties with Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests, assess Granger causality, and construct an ARIMA model to forecast dynamics under current policies.
The results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between contribution inflows and effectiveness, while the link between investment returns and effectiveness is weak or negative during the sample period, consistent with portfolio transition, limited diversification, and market volatility. Exchange-rate movements appear positively associated with effectiveness, reflecting the valuation of foreign assets, but also imply additional risk to beneficiaries’ purchasing power. Forecasts suggest that, absent reforms, effectiveness is unlikely to rise materially by 2030.
We discuss implications for policy design and governance. Priority actions include: strengthening risk management and diversification; aligning asset duration with liabilities; instituting foreign exchange risk hedging where appropriate; publishing clearer performance and risk disclosures; and enhancing default portfolio design and member choice architecture. The findings inform the calibration of contribution policy and investment guidelines for Georgia’s non-state pension system.
Giorgi Katamadze, Mariana Petrova, Natela Tsiklashvili
FORMATION OF THE POST-PANDEMIC BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN GEORGIA: CHALLENGES
AND PREDICTIONS
Abstract:
The COVID 19 pandemic has transformed the entire world's strategy. The governmental oversight, fundamental and significant views were renewed and prioritized according to the unpredictable pandemic process and force-majeure demand. The world's governments and private sectors have faced new socio-political and economic problems and challenges that require quick, effective and powerful solutions. The nation's economic viability during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods depended on these decisions and their effectiveness. Monetary, fiscal, and financial policies suffered significant difficulties in maintaining the economic system. Covid 19 has created difficulties in predicting economic sequences alongside social problems and the complete lack of economic precision in all segments has caused macroeconomic uncertainty.
This paper deals with the microeconomic analysis of Georgia in the post-pandemic period, discussing both the main economic parameters of the country and its dynamics, as well as the analysis of its impact on the microeconomic situation.
The paper analyzes the impact of the pandemic on the main sectors, as well as the decisions made by the state for economic stimulation and its effect. The work is mainly based on the official information of state structures and international organizations, as well as the works of Georgian and foreign scientists, and based on them, a coherent, multi-component analysis is presented.
The theoretical framework of the article is based on fundamental, conceptual studies of Georgian and foreign authors in the field of our research. The paper presents conclusions and recommendations based on a complex study of macroeconomic factors, which are important for scientific circles, both the state and the private sector.
