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Dariusz Nowak, Penka Shishmanova, Emil Tsanov
ASYMMETRIES OF THE EU SINGLE MARKET EFFECTS IN THE POLISH ECONOMY
Abstract:
The European Union Single Market represents one of the most advanced examples of economic integration in the contemporary global economy. The main thing about it is that it functions as a mechanism that systematically reduces transaction costs and increases the accessibility of national markets to economic actors from other Member States. The aim of this study is to present the effects of the asymmetries of the EU single market on the Polish economy through a combination of data and methods. To pursue this objective, we use the industry-level International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E) of the U.S. International Trade Commission, and we rely on the workhorse empirical model of trade – the gravity equation, which we estimate for each of the 170 ITPD-E industries following the recommendations for gravity estimations.
Against this backdrop, the contribution of our paper is to obtain estimates of the asymmetric effects of the Single Market on the exports vs. imports for Poland, looking at important sectors of the Polish economy such as Agriculture and Agricultural Products, Mining and Energy, Manufacturing, Services.
As a final result, it can be stated that integration with the EU Single Market revealed and reinforced Poland’s existing comparative advantages in primary production, making the agricultural raw materials sector one of the earliest beneficiaries of trade liberalisation. At the same time, it entrenched an asymmetric pattern of specialisation, in which the growth of exports of raw products coexisted with a relatively greater dependence on imports of goods with a higher degree of processing
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Ayberk Seker, Mahmut Kadir Isguven, Tugce Danaci Unal, Ramazan Nacar
DIGITAL DISTANCE AND TRADE DYNAMICS: THRESHOLD EFFECTS ON TURKIYE’S EXPORT PERFORMANCE
Abstract:
This study investigates whether digital distance—defined as disparities in digital and technological capabilities between countries—constitutes a critical determinant of Turkey’s export performance in the evolving architecture of international trade. Moving beyond traditional gravity-based explanations centered on geographical distance, the article develops a multidimensional digital distance index derived from the Frontier Technological Readiness Index (FTRI) and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). Using annual panel data for 108 trading partners over the period 2008–2022, the analysis integrates GDP and exchange-rate controls within a panel threshold regression framework, complemented by panel causality tests. The findings reveal a statistically significant single-threshold structure, demonstrating that digital distance exerts nonlinear and asymmetric effects on Turkey’s exports. While convergence in ICT infrastructure and financial access tends to enhance export performance, narrowing gaps in certain dimensions—particularly skills and R&D—does not uniformly yield positive trade outcomes. In fact, larger disparities in selected technological capabilities may generate temporary competitive advantages, consistent with technology-gap theory. Robustness checks incorporating economic complexity distance confirm these threshold dynamics. Moreover, causality results indicate predominantly bidirectional relationships between exports and digital dimensions, underscoring mutual reinforcement between trade and digital transformation. Overall, the results challenge the presumption that digital convergence universally promotes trade. Instead, they highlight the strategic importance of selective digital specialization and innovation-driven competitiveness. By conceptualizing and empirically validating digital distance as a structural trade determinant, the study contributes to the emerging literature on digitalization and international trade and offers policy insights for adaptive, data-driven export strategies in an era of technological disruption.
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Dragomir Iliev, Galin Stefanov, Yoto V. Yotov
ESTIMATING BULGARIA’S TRADE BORDERS WITH THE EU
AN APPLICATION OF THE EMPIRICAL GRAVITY MODEL OF TRADE
Abstract:
We use the empirical gravity model of international trade to evaluate the borders in manufacturing trade between Bulgaria and the European Union (BG-EU). Our results suggest that in 2006 the BG-EU border was quite large and not statistically different from the average border in our sample of 69 countries. As expected, our estimates confirm that the trade border between Bulgaria and the EU members was very large, and much larger than the average sample border, before the collapse of communism. The border fell sharply in the early to mid-90s, but it followed the average sample trend since then. We also document weak asymmetries in the BG-EU border in favor of EU exports to Bulgaria. Our results point to a series of extensions and further analysis.
